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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (3838)7/3/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: Richard Zeng   of 13594
 
New game of AOL: the assumption behind the recent AOL price run-up is that AOL
is in a great transition to be a global franchise.

The problem with AOL before was that AOL capital expenditure for membership
growth can not get paid off by a fixed base of membership fee. The only asset
AOL holds is the installed base of users and the content added to the interface.

The brokerage firms believe that AOL is well on its way to capitalized on the
asset, and to continue adding asset to its content by more and more partnership
with media/content companies. So here is the dream for the analyst. Like WSJ,
AOL is expected to collect royalty fee and revenue on a percentage of the
captical investment made by other companies, such as ads, car sales, book sales,
or content sales. This is a wonderful business. This assumption is validated
only when AOL is able to generate a main portion of revenue on royalty fee
without any additional capital spending from AOL itself.

Can this assumption be true for AOL?

Richard
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