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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 689.17+0.2%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38385)11/20/2002 2:55:51 PM
From: Suresh   of 69003
 
Hi Harry,


Are you referring to the export of manufacturing and r&d job overseas in order to get lower cost?


yes. I was referring to the export of very good jobs outside US. I always thought US dominated the current tech land (for most part) because they;

a) spent a lot on R&D
b) had people from different cultures/background working
together to solve problems.

If (b) is gone... most of the innovation probably takes longer to take hold.

BTW, one another concern I have for the market (techs in particular) not to have any upside momentum (fundamentally) is for the following reasons;

a) Listening to most CC's, corporate spending is not going to resume until they see the light at the end of the tunnel.
b) Most the sales tech companies enjoyed were from the government and education channels.
c) Government and Education channels usually are the late to see the top or the bottom of the cycles. As far as the current data shows.. govt and edu had their top in year 2002. They have just begun or will begin their downward spending cycle now.
d) Replacement PC demand... even if it is there, cost of a replacement PC from Y2K is half or even less than half. So, revenue base that these companies will be working is very less.

More later,

Suresh
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