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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject7/13/2001 10:44:03 AM
From: Michail Shadkin  Read Replies (2) of 6873
 
FTHL - reasons for being long
undersea optical network

Market cap is 504 million
Cash is 6.10/cash (nice cash)
debt/equity is 1.16 (very reasonable compared to other telcos)

No insider selling

Tyco just bought 11.2% stake in FTHL from Verizon
Verizon still has 18.6% stake
2 solid names behind it!!!!!!

Earnings were Apr 24 with no warning to my knowledge
biz.yahoo.com

Recent research from june 21:
biz.yahoo.com

last 4 quarters losr -.69
last quarter lost -.26
july estimate is -39
2001 estimate is -1.60
2002 estimate is -1.97

Conclusions:

they are expected to lose -1.34 rest of this year, which should bring cash down to 4.76
They appear to be fully funded until mid 2004, which is very strong.
Also, with Tyco and Verizon behind them, I dont see any chance of money problems
Their debt to equite is not brutal like many other telcos.

I think this has the chance to be a very nice long term winner, especially when the optical sector regains some past strength maybe in 2-3 quarters.

For now, this might be the worse sector around.

I think it will be extremely hard to drive FTHL below $3.25

At $3.60 it might be worth a very serious look.

Michail
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