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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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From: tejek5/26/2008 9:30:11 PM
   of 1577556
 
Watching Ohio and PA

05.24.08 -- 3:11PM By Josh Marshall

I'm intrigued by the series of veep selection polls SurveyUSA released last week, putting Obama up against McCain with different vice presidential possibilities in a few key states. As noted previously, I'm skeptical about the significance of the veep matchings because I think much of the variance is simply a matter of name recognition. But each poll also has a straight head-to-head match without other names attached.

In Ohio, SUSA has Obama beating McCain by 9 points.

In Pennsylvania, SUSA has Obama beating McCain by 8 points.

In New Mexico, SUSA has Obama tied with McCain.

In Virginia, SUSA has Obama beating McCain by 7 points.

Ohio and Pennsylvania are at the center of arguments that Obama runs weak with non-college educated and rural whites in Appalachia and surrounding regions. I'm cautiously optimistic that Obama can win both, especially Pennsylvania. But is he really that far ahead? Other recent polls of Ohio have shown it consistently within the margin of error but with McCain slightly ahead. Pennsylvania meanwhile has been trending in the direction of an 8 point. And the most recent poll, by Quinnipiac, has Obama up by 6.

Each of these results are consistent with the trend from other polls. But they're definitely on the high end of Obama's leads. SUSA has had a pretty respectable record this year. So I'll be curious to see if leads of that size firm up. If McCain lost Ohio and Pennsylvania, he'd be toast.

talkingpointsmemo.com
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