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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: D. K. G. who wrote (381)5/21/1997 1:32:00 AM
From: Mike   of 25960
 
I like Cymer too. But there are several issues with Cymer that cause for alarm.

Cymer is growing to soon to fast. They cannot seem to meet the market demands. Don't take this too lightly. This problem is very real.
I have dealt with Cymer before they went public. It was a real concern then, it is a concern now.

Before going public, they were producing 3 systems a week. Now it looks they have doubled that. This is 1 system per day. They are currently hiring like crazy to improve production. But I don't believe this is necessarily good. It may even slow them down as they have to train new employees. With your estimate of 125 units, would mean 1.5 units a day. Not impossible, but difficult. This is probably why you are seeing more conservative estimates from the analysts.

Cymer is starting production of their system in Japan through Seiko.
But the last I heard that Cymer's competitor in Japan (Komatsu) is suing Seiko for infringement of a patent filed in Japan by Komatsu. This is going to delay production in Japan (if any systems are produced at all). Seiko has to decide on that.

I think limited growth in production is the only reason why it doesn't go any higher than where we are. We will only see +/- 10% fluctuations around until they can find a way to rev up their production or a competitor knocks them off. Take a guess which will happen first.

Keep in mind, Cymer is quite small compared to its competitors.
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