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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds

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To: Julius Wong who wrote (3872)	8/16/2001 11:18:19 PM
From: Julius Wong	of 4916

Barron's August 16, 2001 Market Watch Today What the Newsletters Are Saying Fidelity Investor 7811 Montrose Road, Potomac, Md. 20859 www.fidelityinvestor.com1 AUGUST ~ Some people were surprised to see consumer confidence decline in July. Not us. We've been saying that increased layoffs would impact confidence negatively. The Conference Board's confidence index dipped to 116.5 from its six-month high of 118.9 in June -- but is still an optimistic number historically. This decline can hardly be said to reflect anything more than a moderately diminished optimism, the result of more rounds of layoffs, from DuPont to Lucent (a spread that encompasses Old and New Economy companies alike). We continue to think layoffs will escalate as more companies face a tough third quarter. Moreover, if local real-estate prices and inventories can be viewed as a litmus test for the nation, we're seeing increased inventory, reduced new-home construction and real-estate ads with lower prices. Indications are that the home-equity market is showing signs of cracking. Up until now, we've been saying that home-equity gains have been bolstering an unsustainable level of confidence in the face of equity-market losses. There's more near-term vulnerability than opportunity here. We also think that spending is addictive and is difficult to stop cold turkey. The fact that consumers are buying on margin (using credit cards or refinanced mortgages to fuel the I-want-it-all-now syndrome) is unhealthy for one's overall financial well-being and not a good sign for our consumer-driven economy. The more we owe, rather than outright own, the larger the looming setback could be. -- James H. Lowell III ------------------------------------------------------------ URL for this Article: interactive.wsj.com

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