TERRORISM: Stopping Terrorists from Returning to New York City
Strategy Page
August 2, 2004: The announcement of possible imminent terrorist attacks against major financial institution targets in New York city and Washington is more than just a warning. Putting out news like that serves several purposes. Obviously, it puts security personnel, in particular, and the population in general, on alert. But the announcement is also a way to shake up, and perhaps expose, any terrorist cells that might be planning such attacks.
The lack of terrorist attacks in the United States since September, 2001 is not a coincidence. It results from the lack of trained al Qaeda terrorists, and energetic work by American police and intelligence organizations to find, and arrest any Islamic terrorists or wannabes. This effort has been aided by the willingness of many in the Arab and Moslem communities to regularly pass on information to the police. This cooperation is generally kept quiet, as the informants fear for the lives of kin they may have back in the old country, or for themselves. There are still some Islamic radicals operating openly in the United States. As long as they don't preach, or commit, violence against other Americans, they are within the law. But the presence of these individuals is often intimidating to less radical Moslems. However, the alertness and cooperation of Moslems, either American citizens or recent immigrants, and Americans in general, has made it difficult for terrorist cells to operate here.
But it's not for want of trying. Terrorist suspects have been arrested in other parts of the world (from Europe to the Middle East, Central Asia and even South America), who have indicated energetic efforts to get terrorists into the United States, and to pull off some more spectacular attacks. On the face of it, there should be little difficulty in carrying out a large scale attack in America. After all, there are so many ways to do it. Buying, or stealing, a truck carrying dangerous chemicals is one glaring vulnerability. Thousands of these trucks criss-cross the United States every day. It's not rocket science to hang out near a chemical plant and note when trucks loaded when toxic chemicals leave, and where they go. There's usually a pattern to this, as the 15,000 firms using these chemicals don't move around and need new supplies regularly. OK, so the cops watch these trucks carefully, although this varies from one part of the country to another. And the truckers themselves are alert to their increased vulnerability to hijacking by terrorists. Trucks are now equipped with GPS, radio and Internet access. If the trucks deviate from their assigned route, this is usually known quickly. Terrorists have a harder time finding out what kind of security the chemical trucks have. In the past, terrorists could hook up with the criminal underground (not as easy as it sounds, as the mob doesn't advertise in the Yellow Pages) to get some things done (like hijacking a truck full of poisonous chemicals). But the crooks are not stupid. While some are just patriotic, all realize that any involvement with terrorists would bring down more law enforcement heat than any of their normal criminal activities would.
So the terrorists are largely on their own in the United States. There are some native-born Americans, not of Middle Eastern descent, and converts to Islam (or long time Moslems from Bosnia or Albania), who might be enticed into a terrorist plot. This might help getting a bomb on an airplane, but anyone buying dangerous chemicals, gets extra scrutiny these days. There are already laws on the books restricting who can buy certain kinds of chemicals. The chemical suppliers (wholesale and retail), know that they would be hung out to dry if they sold deadly chemicals to terrorists. So there is more scrutiny at this end. Fear, fear of consequences, is a very useful weapon in the war against terror. The only other source of bulk chemicals is the illegal trade that supplies criminal manufacturers of some drugs (like amphetamines, crack cocaine or heroin.) Some Arabs have been involved in this trade. But, again, even the guys in the illegal chemicals trade are nervous. This doesn't make it impossible for terrorists, just more difficult.
But there is also fear among the ill trained terrorists al Qaeda is trying to get into the United States. Many of al Qaeda's best have been captured or killed in the last three years. Those that remain are largely amateurs. You can only pick up so much useful experience from books, CDs or conversations at a mosque or coffee house.
Yet the Islamic radicals, despite setbacks in Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and many other places, still have thousands of eager volunteers. Most of them are broke and clueless. Al Qaeda does have some money and experienced people left. but they keep getting arrested. The bottom line is that al Qaeda cannot put together too many attack teams, and cannot afford to lose too many of them. Each team lost will expose some core members and supporters of al Qaeda to pursuit, and possible capture. At the moment, al Qaeda is at a disadvantage. It's inability to strike in American for so long is embarrassing, especially with so many al Qaeda members being killed, or captured and imprisoned for long terms. Al Qaeda has been patient in the past, but the price of patience goes way up if it can be interpreted by your supporters as weakness and ineffectiveness.
So when the FBI says, "we know you are trying to get a team into New York," the expected effect is to rattle some semi-pro terrorists who are already pretty nervous about their chances of avoiding capture and becoming successful mass murderers. It is a battle of nerves. Not just having strong ones, but also being able to shake those of your opponent. However, terrorism is more than strong nerves. It's also luck, and being able to do a number of tasks successfully, despite massive efforts to stop you. |
