The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (3872)	10/31/2019 3:13:01 PM
From: DinoNavarre	Read Replies (1) of 13801

*>>>You'll not find a single new fangled coal plant that operates cheaper than natural gas.<<<* I thought we were talking about renewables....wind, solar, batteries and others backed by NG peakers...??? Not straight up CCGT plants -vs- Coal fired plants. Maybe you and NP still think NG is renewable....??? In the future lets keep away from LCOE $$$$ figures when discussing electric generation costs....All in Market Heat Rates are what determines the cost of generating electricity from any given plant..... Ask Germany....They found out the hard way!!! Not many cookie cutter plants out in the world either. Market Heat Rate spread sheets change daily / many inputs (way to many for me to list here).....Again....Sing it with me........Not many cookie cutter plants!!! Not many cookie cutter plants!!! LCOE is IMO more of a general usage/comparison model used by folks like EIA/DOE for when plants are planned / going to be built,....I have not dug into LCOE write-ups in awhile now, do EIA's LCOE models even account for plant location / line losses to get power to end users??? What about when renewable & other credits go away??? What about things like Fast Start capability or Voltage Support payments??? How about when states & local governments change laws/regs and plants now have to spend quite a bit of money to conform to those changes....Does LCOE account for that??? There are/were smaller 20mw gas fired peaking units in San Francisco that can't even run without 24 hour prior city council approval....Good luck with that....They rarely ever run and when they do it is because the city council allows them to test fire the units....they are PG&E units. Many many variables need to be taken into account. Baseload mine-mouth coal plants acting as Master Generators / Frequency setters / PSS guys......is a good way to go, especially if they are new supercritical once through units....all IMO. How much in the way of CO, NOX, CO2 + PM's + other emissions do you think one or two large California fires puts back into the atmosphere??? Massive amounts!!! Unfortunately California probably undoes ALL of its annual emissions reductions efforts with just a few large fires.....I've read studies more than five years ago that claim the biggest culprit is not conducting proper prescribed agricultural and forest management burns....I do agree with your mudslide comments AFA being careful when conducting prescribed burns....been there done....Took the long way home a few times do to mudslides!!! You might be surprised by what some of the models indicate......Check Oregon State University.....They are pretty good with data about burning different types of wood....they wrote the book/bible on the emissions released by burning different types of wood at or above 1400F / adiabatic flame temperatures. Back in the late 1980's, I had to utilize their data while working at a mini-test-bed / bio-energy plant that the Feds utilized from time to time to study burning different types of wood, biomass, wood furniture plant shavings/waste, urban demolition wood waste and even very high BTU corn kernels.... Sometime the boilers were co-fired by above fuels with a combination of what were considered to be waste oil/fuel products....controlling the temperatures and stability of the waste oils was the toughest part of the job....trial & error stuff....Go easy on the corn feed rate....if you don't want to melt boiler tubes and damage the furnace refractory!!! So back to those California fires......With the coriolis effect still doing its thing on the USA's weather patterns....Should states east of California be able to bring lawsuits against California for not do a better job of preventing forest fires....Will California bring counter-suits against states with high fossil fuel emissions....Keep the coriolis effect in mind....Just Sayin!!! Anyway just some of my rambling thoughts.....As Always.....Feel free to let your TDS show through!!! Sorry to bother you..... Have A Great Day!!!

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