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Non-Tech : Claire's Stores (CLE) NYSE
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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (382)8/4/1997 1:42:00 AM
From: Brad Bolen   of 619
 
Paul,

If a high beta 'beats' the market in a bull phase to the upside, does that beta also imply loosing bigger in a bear phase?...i.e. beta works both ways. It is just a measure of volatility. Trying to sell before the down phase is just timing the market and leads to mistakes. I also don't remember what indexes were used in the studies I read. I am not so sure it was the S&P, but rather a much larger benchmark.

You bring up great points. I guess I can believe that there may be anomalies such as the Value Line Effect you mention. But I would have to believe that such a way of picking stocks would become uneffective/less effective before it could be implimented by the 'masses'. I often wonder if the DOGS of the DOW THEORY really works for the reasons the 'fools' think it does. In fact, I am really surprised it works at all.

Anyway, it may well be that 100 years just insn't long enough for an accurate scientific study anyway...you think?

B.

P.S. I agree completely about CLE.

P.S. What do you know about CHAOS Theory?
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