A couple of points on that.
I can't speak to specific numbers and won't, but there are a number of factors not considered by that writer.
SF end strength has been increased. So a shortage is not what it seems until the new figure is met. Ditto for the SEALS. The system and schools were geared to producing a set number. That cannot be changed overnight. Qualified SF instructors are not easy to find. Nor are SF volunteers.
The 90% of the CA (civil Affairs) battalions he said were deactivated...were deactivated by Clinton.
SFers are careerists. When we hit Afghan, 50% of them were eligible for retirement. The deployment rate has been as high as 85% since then. Early or 20 year retirement is not unusual for SFers. The bods wear out. They have seen near continuous high risk service. Hell even SF training is highly hazardous.
The guys who were over 20 on 9/11 are now even more over 20. For example, a Command Sergeant Major I know who has now served a tour in Afghanistan and Iraq just went over 30. He has a total of some 13+ years in high risk assignments ans is now 50 years old. He retires in one month and has already volunteered to take a significant volunteer position in the retired SF community.
At the final physical, most SFers finally come clean and point out all their ailments. X-Rays and lab tests, either at Army or VA Hospitals, confirm numerous previously unreported self-treated (or SF medic treated)injuries and diseases. Many if not most are rated disabled to some degree of 10% or higher. The point is many of the older guys are hurting everyday.
The best thing we have going now is that SF recruiting has been and continues to rise. More instructors (mostly retired SFers) have now been hired. Training standards have been increased to account for our new weapons and equipment as well as tactics changes by our likely opponents. Yet graduation % rates have remained stable or improved.
After 20 or more years of "Anywhere, Anytime, Under Any Conditions" duty. Some guys start to think they can do and would enjoy doing other things. There is a family component to this as well. Some guys want to spend some time with their kids who are usually in Junior HS or High School when dad hits the 20 year mark. Others who are not divorced want to live with the stranger in their life, their wife.
The old farts are retiring. That should surprise nobody. They are awesome men who have done the work for a long long time. After a career in SF including a tour in Afghan and Iraq, they do not need an excuse. They deserve a break.
The new guys are young, strong and highly motivated to continue the 52 year SF tradition. They are even more awesome. They stand ready to defend America and carry forward the SF Motto, "De Oppresso Liber", Free The Oppressed.
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