Sam, I don't see why you should expect the GC membersto be unanimous in their view of policy and action.
There is the matter of politics. The Sunni members of the Council have to look to their constituency and they're not necessarily looking at long term benefits. On the other hand, they may be trying to stave off future assassination attempts on themselves. Some Iraqis regard these folks' recent statements as pusillanimous.
I'd be very suspicious if there waere 100% agreement.
More generally,
To the degree the Coalition is not positive and straight forward in its behaviour and policy towards the security situation in Iraq, the more it will see personal defection on the part of some council members. These Council members have bsed their political futures and in some cases, their lives, on a successful outcome of the occupation in terms of security, democracy and economic success. Ultimately, the last two depend on reasonable security.
Anything that looks like loss of resolve on the part of the Coalition makes them very nervous. And it makes most Iraqis very nervous, also.
The main reason the resistance is not even more fierce than it is right now is because (a) everyone knows that we have overwhelming military power, and can take out the whole country if we choose
Actually, the resistance is not fiercer because it has very little support amongst most Iraqis. They don't like the terrorists running those shows - they are nasty, tyrannical people who behave just like Saddam. They are afraid of them because they're destructive, murderous people whose basic aim right now is to terrorize Iraqis, not the US. Their international media sideshows are secondary. The atrocities are staged for al Arabia and al Jazeera which are re-broadcast into Iraq. There is definitely an upside to the whole thing if the Coalition clearly defeats these people on this offensive - the terrorist message to the Iraqis is soundly discredited.
and (b) there is no consensus on who should take over.
There is a consensus on who should not take over: The Sunni and Shiite terrorists running the present uprisings. Of course there's no consensus on who should ultimately form the government. They are at the start of that process.
What the coalition and most of its Governing Council council colleagues are aiming at is a caretaker government until they can get elected an Iraqi government which will write a constitution. This what the terrorists want to defeat first, and if it gets to the end of that process, then to defeat the election for the first real government.
"You are now fighting an entire nation, from south to north, from east to west, and we advise you to withdraw from Iraq," said Mr Sadr, who is the subject of a coalition arrest warrant.
The fighting an entire nation stuff is nonsense. The Coaltion is having too much success for that to be the case.
Sadr is the subject of a warrant from an Iraqi judge, not the Coalition. Somehow, the people writng the piece just managed to miss that. |
