The Handset Game in Q1 ...
Strictly Preliminary: The usual caveat applies. It is possible and even probable that I have inadvertently made a few transposition, typographical, or calculation errors, in compiling these tables I'm using Strategy Analytics sell-in estimate which is ~14 million units higher than Nokia's preliminary global view, and 9.5 million higher than Motorola's. Strategy Analytics is now forecasting that 1 Billion units will sell into channels in 2006 making handsets a $1.3 Billion market this year.
An impressive 229 million mobile phones were shipped worldwide in Q1 2006, registering an annual growth rate of 31%. This was the first time sales have exceeded the 200 million barrier during quarter one. Motorola was the star performer, reaching 20% global market share for the first time since 1998. Nokia also surged, as the top two mega vendors tightened their grip on the competition. Sony Ericsson sold more than 2 million Walkman music phones and outgrew the overall market. Meanwhile, Samsung continued its recent slower growth trend. BenQ-Siemens remained under pressure. Following a strong flow of upbeat news from tier-1 mobile players, Strategy Analytics forecasts 1.00 billion units for the full-year 2006, up 22% from 817M in 2005
tinyurl.com
The total global cell phone market in the first quarter is estimated at over 220 million units by market research group Gartner, 226.7 million units by fellow research group IDC and 229 million phones by Strategy Analytics. They estimate the total market grew by between 27 to 31 percent. - Reuters -
tinyurl.com
Handset share continues to consolidate around Nokia and Motorola who now jointly claim about 53% unit share and if you add in Samsung who is a bit down but certainly not out and will be charging back with their delayed product refresh in H2, the big 3 now control almost 64% of the market.
Big Winners in Q1 were ...
• Motorola who gained considerable share QoQ and YoY, and narrowed the share gap with Nokia although their ASP was down $6 QoQ and their handset operating margins were flat at 11%. Overall Motorola's first-quarter operating margin fell to 8.9 percent from 10.5 percent a year earlier, but hats off to "wickedly cool" Moto.
• Nokia who gained solid share YoY but lost some to Motorola QoQ -- but their ASP was up and their best in industry margins were also up. The companies margins were 14% dragged down by Networks but mobile device operating margins from the 3 divisions manufacturing them (Mobile Phones, Multimedia, and Enterprise Solutions) were 17.6% and produced EBITA profit of €1.342 Billion or $1.620 USD.
• Sony Ericsson whose share was up YoY with higher ASP and improving margins.
Big losers in Q1 were ...
• BenQ/Siemens and 90+ 'Others' who lost share and most lost money.
• Samsung whose shipments were up but share was down with ASPs down and whose once robust margins were up from 8% in Q4 but still unimpressive at 10%
• LG whose share was up -- but on reduced ASP and negative margins.
Q1 2006 Handset Sell-In as Reported by Vendors
Q1 2006 Handset Sell-in and Share and YoY Gain/Loss
·
Q1 05 Q1 05 ¦ Q1 06 Q1 06 ¦ Gain or Loss
Company Units Share ¦ Units Share ¦ Units Percent Share
======= ===== ===== ¦ ====== ===== ¦ ====== ======= ========
Nokia 53.8m 31.3% ¦ 75.1m 32.8% ¦ +21.3m +40% +1.5 ppt
Motorola 28.7m 16.7% ¦ 46.1m 20.1% ¦ +17.4m +61% +3.4 ppt
Samsung 24.5m 14.2% ¦ 29.0m 12.7% ¦ +4.5M +18% -1.5 ppt
LG 11.1m 6.5% ¦ 15.6m 6.8% ¦ +4.5m +41% +0.3 ppt
SEricsson 9.4m 5.5% ¦ 13.3m 5.8% ¦ +3.9m +41% +0.3 ppt
Others¹ 44.5m 25.9% ¦ 49.9m 21.8% ¦ +5.4m +12% -4.1 ppt
------ ------ ¦ ------ ------ ¦
Total² 172.0m 100.0% ¦229.0m² 100.0% ¦
·
Q1 2006 Handset Sell-in and Share and QoQ Sequential Gain/Loss
·
Q4-05 Q4-05 ¦ Q1 06 Q1 06 ¦ Gain or Loss
Company Units Share ¦ Units Share ¦ Units Percent Share
======= ====== ===== ¦ ====== ===== ¦ ====== ======= ========
Nokia 83.7m 34.1% ¦ 75.1m 32.8% ¦ -8.6m -10% -1.3 ppt
Motorola 44.7m 18.2% ¦ 46.1m 20.1% ¦ +1.4m +3% +1.9 ppt
Samsung 27.2m 11.1% ¦ 29.0m 12.7% ¦ +1.8m +7% -1.6 ppt
LG 16.2m 6.6% ¦ 15.6m 6.8% ¦ -0.6m -4% +0.2 ppt
SEricsson 16.1m 6.5% ¦ 13.3m 5.8% ¦ -2.8m -17% -0.7 ppt
Others¹ 58.0m 23.5% ¦ 49.9m 21.8% ¦ -17.6m -30% -1.7 ppt
------ ------ ¦ ------ ------ ¦
Total² 245.9m 100.0% |229.0m² 100.0% ¦
·
¹,² As estimated by Strategy Analytics
Q1 2006 Key Mobile Device (Handset) Metrics
Sales ASP Revenue Operating
Units EURO USD EURO USD Margin
===== ========== ======= ======== ==========
Nokia 75.1m €103 $127 €7.735b $9.341b 17.6%
Motorola 46.1m €113 $139 €5.182b $6.400b 11.0%
Samsung 29.0m €142 $171 €3.784b $4.570b 10.0%
LG 15.6m €103 $127 €1.357b $1.615b (-1.0%)
SEricsson 13.3m €149 $181 €1.992b $2.420b 7.6%
Nokia's View of Global Handset Sales in Q1 2006 by Technology ¹,²
PDC 1M (-63% QoQ; -80% YoY)
TDMA 0m (-25% QoQ; -92% YoY) 0%
iDEN 3m (-28% QoQ; -1% YoY) 1.4%
WCDMA 19m (+25% QoQ;+129% YoY) 8.8%
CDMA 36m (-14% QoQ; +23% YoY) 16.8%
GSM 156m (-14% QoQ; +26% YoY)
====
215m Total 'cdma' [CDMA=WCDMA] = 55m (25.6%)³
·
¹ Based on Nokia’s preliminary market estimates 1Q06 volume
reached 215m units with growth of +27% YoY (170 M units in 1Q05)
and -12% QoQ (244 M in 4Q05)
² Nokia's preliminary view is 14 million units shy of Strategy Analytics
³ QUALCOMM's Q1 view is ~63m 'cdma' units but includes WLL units
Nokia Mobile Device Volume By Geographic Area
Q1 2006 Q1 2005 YoY Change Q4 2005 QoQ Change
======= ======= ========== ======= ==========
Europe 20.4m 17.4m +17% 29.9m -32%
MEA 11.9m 10.0m +19% 10.3m +16%
China 10.9m 7.1m +54% 9.5m +15%
Asia-Pacific 16.4m 10.6m +55% 14.8m +11%
North America 8.4m 4.3m +95% 9.8m -14%
Total 75.1m 53.8m +40% 83.7m -10%
Nokia Sees Their Q1 Mobile Device Market Share as ...
#1 in all of EMEA
#1 in all of APAC
#1 in China
#1 in India
#1 in Russia
#1 in Middle East and Africa
#1 in South East Asia Pacific
#1 in U.S. GSM
#1 in WCDMA
Motorola Sees Their Q1 Mobile Device Market Share as ...
#1 in sell-through to consumers in North America
#1 at top 3 wireless operators in North America
#1 in sell-through to consumers in Latin America
#1 at top 2 wireless operators in Latin America
#2 (Strong #2) and growing in Europe
#2 (Strong #2) and growing in North Asia
#2 (Strong #2) and growing in high-growth markets
Vendors Q1 2006 Presentation Slides
• Nokia: tinyurl.com
• Motorola: tinyurl.com
• Samsung: tinyurl.com (PDF link at top)
• LG: tinyurl.com (PDF link at bottom)
• QUALCOMM: tinyurl.com
• QUALCOMM: tinyurl.com ('cdma' handsets slide only)
Vendors Q1 Earnings Releases
• Nokia: tinyurl.com
• Motorola: tinyurl.com
• Samsung: tinyurl.com
• LG: tinyurl.com
• Sony Ericsson: tinyurl.com
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The above is preliminary. I'll audit and add additional relevant data next week.
If anyone sees any mistakes please advise and comments are always welcome.
- Eric - |
