re: <<Interesting how some analysts lowered estimates, and some raised earnings estimates? Jim>>
It is interesting, though what I've got from Zack's has been generally
down. And I have gotten a slew of earnings revisions since the
release. A summary of the most relevant below:
NumEstimates Period From To %Change
3 Q9/98 0.183 0.14 -24%
4 FY98 0.63 0.543 -13%
3 FY99 1.38 1.26 -9%
HAMBRECHT&QUIST has come down the most, yet remain the highest.
Gruntal has also come down. BANCAM/ROB STEP has come up
slightly near term, down long term, yet remains low. Bear Stearns, slightly down.
I was going to go down the road Dan and Hashem were going and
create my own model, but I think I'll just live with what's coming from
the analysts. (what do you guys think?)
Two things are curious to me: 1. the call seemed more positive than
negative, yet downward revisions. 2. downward revisions yet the
price has not suffered.., much.
I think it's smart that they'll be doing a 'restructuring charge' next q.
Amazing though it be, the markets seem to look past these things.
So what's fair value? Well, with FY99 estimate of 1.26, the question
is what multiple to use? conservatively, take an expected 5yr growth
rate of ~21%, reduce by 20% for uncertainty and we're at ~17.
17* 1.26 puts us in low 20ish.
Agressively, you could argue much higher, no doubt. I think the chance
for upside surprises is considerably. I'd say it's a given we'll be getting
more product announcements...
To sum up, I'm back long at 18.
cheers,
-Kevin |
