Outlook as reported by Cymer:
Corporate Outlook
The following statements do not include the potential impact of any mergers, acquisitions or other business combinations that may be completed after September 30, 2000. Based on information available at this time, referring first to the fourth quarter of 2000, then to the year 2001, Cymer is currently providing the following guidance:
-- Cymer expects system revenue unit shipments in the fourth quarter of
2000 to rise approximately eight percent over the level in the third
quarter.
-- Cymer anticipates total revenue to increase 4 percent to 5 percent in
the fourth quarter over the third quarter. For the full year of 2000,
the Company expects revenue growth in the range of 65 percent to 68
percent over 1999. This is a further improvement over our previous
forecast of approximately 60 percent growth for this year.
-- The Company expects SG&A expenses to be approximately 10 percent of
revenue in the fourth quarter versus 12 percent of revenue in the third
quarter.
-- For the fourth quarter, Cymer expects operating income to be
approximately 26 percent of revenue.
-- Cymer's tax rate for the fourth quarter will be 29 percent.
-- Indications are that chipmaker spending on new equipment and factory
capacity expansions in 2001 will be lower than originally forecasted,
though still significantly in excess of that in 2000. Market drivers
continue to be the transitions to 150nm and 130nm patterning, 300mm
wafer substrates, and the use of copper.
-- Cymer's current industry forecast now projects that the total number of
lithography tools installed at chipmakers will grow from approximately
570 systems this year to approximately 840 systems in 2001.
-- For 2001, the revenue growth rate on a quarterly basis will be variable
within the range of 6 percent to 10 percent with a potential of
exceeding 10 percent in the fourth quarter of next year. On an annual
basis Cymer is expecting 35 percent to 40 percent revenue growth year
over year for 2001.
-- We are now targeting gross margins in the range of 50 percent to
54 percent dependent upon the industry growth cycle continuing, new
model introductions with higher average selling prices, and further
process improvements in 2001. We expect that gross margins will evolve
from current levels to approximately 52 percent by the fourth quarter
of 2001.
-- R&D expenditures are currently forecasted at approximately 12 percent
to 14 percent of revenue.
-- SG&A expense is currently forecast to gradually decline as a percent of
revenue over the year from approximately 10.5 percent to approximately
8 percent.
-- Therefore, given the aforementioned forecasted performance we expect
operating income to progress from approximately 27 percent in the first
quarter to approximately 31 percent by the fourth quarter of 2001.
-- Cymer models net other expense at $1,200,000 per quarter and the
company's tax rate for 2001 is currently estimated to be 33 percent.
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