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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: donald sew who wrote (38981)4/10/1998 10:09:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot   of 58727
 
I tried to use some of Mr. Plonk's analysis. He is very good at his approach. The problem that I ran into is the apparent easy opportunity to mistake little waves for big Waves in terms or market action. I would also guess there must be some tuning by the individual based on empirical backtesting to get the wave timing parameters correct. Thus, I have found it too confusing and non-quantitative for me personally. Also, there is the possiblity of missing one of the wave structure as happened to Mr. Plonk. Then it appears that you lose your time reference and have no navigational peg point to go forward. You have to wait until future events to try to rebaseline your wave structure. My technical read now indicates that we have at least several days of upside but then the potential of some fairly sizable corrective action.

It is very possible that a pullback from today's PE on the S&P of about 23.5 to 24 to about 21-22 is very possible. That would be a 7 to 10 percent retracement and could happen at almost any time. However, the potential and the occurance are different things. I think going forward we need to be prepared and positioned for this real possibility or just a long dead money period. The first quarter 12 plus percent return can NOT be duplicated throughout the year.
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