George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: DMaA who wrote (38)	9/5/1997 8:28:00 PM
From: Rick Kiray	of 5853

I was reading one of GG's ASAP articles today and noticed he predicted that video compression would not be needed in the future due to how cheap WDM would make bandwidth (I'm paraphrasing and simplifing here but that appered to be one of the points he was making). I found this very interesting. As a big CUBE fan, I hope he is wrong. Even if his predictions on BW cost are correct I think he is being too optomistic here. Unless the bandwidth is free, sending video compressed will be cheaper than uncompressed. Also there is the issue of storage. Even with DVD-RAM, compression will still be needed to store significant amounts of video. So George looks wrong to me. Of course the advantage of being a futurist is if you wait long enough your predictions might come true. But, in 10 or 20 years I doubt many people will remember what he predicted. Rick

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