Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: coferspeculator who wrote (36)	4/23/2004 8:45:44 AM
From: coferspeculator	of 14340

Watch List Stocks-Activity for April 22 ARW,TXT,ACF,BA,JBLU,COH,F,GP,FDC ARW-Today ARW began its jump across a major creek on wide spread and increased volume, finishing near the highs of the day. It re-entered its uptrend as it broke back through the demand line off the August LPS at $15 1/2. A minor branch was jumped on 4/01 and the back-up on lower volume and small spread appears to be evidence of absorption volume taking which todays action seems to have verified. The most conservative target from the LPS from last August was $25. The ability to surpass that and then hold in the same area during potential re-accumulation is important. The aggressive target from the LPS in August was $34. The current stepping stone count provides for a target of $33-$36. Confirmation of targets is positive. This is the type of situation in which aggressive traders might wish to be taking a position intra-day since the potential for 20% seemed reasonable. A stop at the edge offered a possible loss of $1 for a potential gain of $5 plus. It was worth the speculation for the aggressive trader if they had been prepared in advance to take advantage of the opportunity. At this moment, however, new positions should be considered on the expected back-up. Let the action prove itself. TXT-The targets on this one were identified last May for having two possible phases. Objectives for the first of $61 and the second of $80. At nearly $60 an ending action confirmed the evidence that was building that the first phase move was coming to an end. TXT entered a trading range framed by it's high of $59 and low of $50. The reaction from the original LPS and the $59 high was substantially less than 50% which was bullish. A very important apex formed off the demand line from the low of March '03 and the recent supply line from $59. A conservative stepping stone count of $62 confirmed last years first phase target and more importantly offered evidence that this might provide for a major jump of the creek at the top of the resistance near $60. If such a jump materializes and the proper back up occurs the original second phase target of $80 is possible. TXT was mentioned on yesterdays list since it penetrated the apex and finished at its highs on increasing spread as it jumped the minor creek. This offered speculators an opportunity to be alert for a trade that would offer at least 10% for the short term trader and potentially over 40% for intermediate to long term traders. Aggressive short term traders could have placed their stop close to the edge of the branch offering at least a 4-1 ratio. Intermediate or longer term traders would look for more protection since the profit potential is significantly higher. If positions weren't taken yesterday then taking one now could be risky. Since the top of the trading range hasn't been penetrated there is the possibility that an upthrust might occur. Waiting to see how this one plays out will offer a less risky opportunity.

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