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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.275

-1.4%

Dec 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (3904)	3/30/2000 12:54:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) of 34857

Two other Japanese operators are going with W-CDMA... the risk of selecting cdma2000 at this point is that the handsets and network equipment won't be ready in time to compete with W-CDMA. That gets us into another interminable debate on which of these standards is a fake... but here's the punchline: at least 40 W-CDMA networks will be ordered within a year. That's a minimum of 2 in Japan, 4 in Spain, 5 in England, 4 in Germany, 4 in Finland, etc. This sheer volume is a very scary thing to operators considering cdma2000. Standardization tends to start with a few tentative deals and then turn into a stampede. I think Nokia emphasized W-CDMA heavily and early to gain an upper hand if this standard turned into a global phenom - which was not a sure bet at all in 1998. Companies not backing W-CDMA strongly back then now risk looking like latecomers; that may turn into a headache for Siemens and Alcatel. It was a gamble and during the next four months or so we'll find out how well it worked. Nokia probably needs at lest 2 deals in each country, since all the network orders will be split. It seems that we might get a domino effect in Asia - if SK Telecom and DDI defect to W-CDMA, they will pull the rest of Asian operators still hesitating with them. Vodafone may be forced into an extremely awkward situation... what will they choose for Airtouch if all their other networks go with W-CDMA? Tero

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