Asia Pacific PC Market Rebounds in 4Q Predicts IDC Pt. I
by: hlpinout
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Dec. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Third quarter PC shipments in Asia/Pacific declined from the same period a year ago, but the market performed better than forecast, according to preliminary data released today by International Data Corporation (IDC). Asia/Pacific
(excluding Japan) PC shipments declined 2.3 percent in the third quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago, which represented the lowest annual decline in 1998. Likewise, the regional PC
market managed to exceed IDC's initial forecast of a 3.1 percent decline as shipments reached 2.56 million units.
The stronger than expected results combined with strengthening currency and stock markets in the fourth quarter bodes well for the regional PC market in Q4 and into 1999. Further, Intel's
announcement in November that it expects fourth quarter demand for PC products "across all market segments and in all geographies" to be stronger than initially expected adds credence to the
prospect of a regional PC market revival. Based on IDC's latest forecast, PC shipments in Q4 are expected to increase 5 percent over Q4 1997, which marks the first annual shipment growth since
Q4 1997. Regional PC shipments in 1999 are forecast to increase 16 percent over 1998, a considerable improvement from an expected 1 percent annual decline in 1998.
"After one year of turmoil, the regional PC market is showing some signs of life as we look toward 1999," said Brian Kornegay, research manager at IDC Asia/Pacific. "While we are not ready to proclaim a full-fledged recovery, the worst could be behind the regional PC market as a degree of stability returns to the region."
Competitively, Compaq maintained leadership in the regional market with 8.6 percent market share. Compaq volumes dropped from the same period a year ago as well as Q2 1998 as some Digital business faded. IBM remained the second ranked vendor in Q3 after being bumped there in Q2 1998. Nevertheless, IBM managed to increase market share from the year-earlier period by outpacing industry growth. One of the quarter's most significant competitive shifts was generated by Legend. Due to 75 percent annual shipment growth, Legend replaced Hewlett-Packard as the third largest vendor in the region with 5.8 percent market share.
Legend's strong gains continue to be fueled by its strength in the
Chinese market where PC growth has remained stable. Despite 25 percent annual shipment growth, Hewlett-Packard dropped to the market's fourth place position. Hewlett-Packard's strong annual growth was bolstered by exceptional gains in the PRC, Australia, and New Zealand. Acer marginally maintained its fifth place position despite a 24 percent contraction from Q3 1997.
Market Highlights
In accordance with the regional trend since the crisis began, the
market's harshest conditions were in Southeast Asia and Korea.
Conditions in Indonesia were the worst in the region, as volumes
declined 82 percent when compared to the year-earlier period. After
Indonesia, Thailand, Korea, and Malaysia endured the worst downturns
with annual shipment declines of 44 percent, 35 percent and 27 percent, respectively. In contrast, China and India continued to offset slowdowns in the rest of the region with buoyant growth. PC shipments in the PRC increased almost 28 percent from the year-ago period despite the government's crackdown on gray market activity in the beginning of the quarter. India's annual shipment growth dropped from the levels reached the previous two quarters; however, it still managed to generate the second fastest growth in the region with a 24 percent annual shipment increase. Expansion in the Indian market continues to be supported by the home and small business sectors. Other regional markets with strong performances in the third quarter included New
Zealand, Taiwan, and Australia.
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