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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: neko who wrote (3910)9/27/1996 7:06:00 PM
From: Joe Antol   of 42771
 
Neko (and anyone else that's interested <smile> some e-mail I sent
to Marengi .... followed by a PR today from Langford (heh, note where
he says "quickly" "these are IDC numbers though")...

Oh yeah, what "Vaults" yesterday, comes down today <grin>

Oh, one more thing ... Margengi doesn't answer as quickly as Frankenberg did (if at all, and I'm not holding my breath waiting either). Excerpts:

===================================================================

Joe,

You don't know me. I am a stockholder in NOVL. I have been following the plight of the company for awhile now. I held off with any correspondence to you until now...

Frankly, I'm "pissed". Out of all of the stuff that's in the rags now, this particular Forrester article sticks out like a sore thumb:

>7. NOVELL "NO LONGER STRATEGIC VENDOR", SAYS FORRESTER
>
> Topic Matched: Network Protocols
>
>Network Briefing, Sep. 27 -- Novell NetWare is a dying technology,
>according to a survey of large corporations conducted by Forrester
>Research. Interviews with 50 senior executives revealed that while 90%
>of large companies have NetWare today, only 48% plan to still be using
>it in three years' time.
>
>
><x>Full text of this story - 2.00
>

Now, I'm sure you know about this article, and you don't need to pay two bucks for the full text either. I've seen this particular article around (if you know what I mean). So which is it? Are you countering it? What are you going to do about it? Forrester is NOT IDC or DATAQUEST or the other "write for hire" guys.

Next, is it going to be Gartner Group?

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this Joe. Also pay a visit to my web site to see what I think of Novell. Oh, the cc's on this are YOUR employees. They should be able to fill you in as to who I am.

Best Regards,

Joe Antol
=================================================== And then, and then

NetWare Not Losing Out To Windows NT, Asserts Novell

Topic Matched: Network Operating Systems

Comtex, September 26, 1996

SINGAPORE, 1996 SEP 26 (Newsbytes) -- By G Joslin Vethakumar. Novell has
rejected the claim that its flagship product, NetWare, is losing out
to Microsoft's Windows NT as the network operating system marketplace
heats up.

"We have been consistently maintaining a market share of 63
percent to 65 percent worldwide, so the issue doesn't arise at all,"
said Vic Langford, senior vice-president and general manager of
Novell's Internet/Intranet Services Business Unit, at a press
briefing in Singapore yesterday.

He was also quick to add that Novell's figures were based on IDC
estimates. Asserting that there was no erosion in its share, he said
Microsoft was merely using its own estimates to spout the claim. He,
however, agreed that Windows NT was gaining in market share, but felt
that was at the expense of Unix. Derek Foo, Novell's managing
director for ASEAN, said it was merely a perception aided by
Microsoft's marketing machinery, and not based on fact.

For his part, Peter Wong, area director for Asia, said NetWare was in a
commanding position in Singapore with an 80 percent market share. He
also said Novell Asia was contributing 18-19 percent to the revenues
of the company. He expected a growth of 25-30 percent in Asia
(excluding Japan and China) this year, down from 52 percent last year.
"The fall was because it is very hard to cope with the high rate
experienced last year," Wong explained.

Langford also did not see merit in the claim that Asia was a Microsoft
shop. "Asia is a Microsoft shop for the desktop, and a Novell shop for
servers," he added. He said that even in the messaging market, many of
MS Mail users were migrating to GroupWise and not to Microsoft Exchange.

He even repudiated the Lotus claim that Notes was set to get 20 million
users by 1999. It had only 5.5 million users now, and the growth does
not indicate enough to make the projection realistic, he said.

Presenting the directions of the company, Langford said all of Novell's
products would be Internet/intranet-enabled. He said, so far, the Web
server and the intranet had not been used in any mission-critical work,
but asserted that things were set to change. It was his view that, as
more and more Web servers get linked to live data, work would become
dependent on it. The intranet software market is expected to be worth
US$10 billion by the year 2000.

"We are at the end of a difficult phase marked by uncertainty on what
business we should focus on," he said. "We have made an exit from word
processing and UnixWare and are now focused on providing excellence in
networking software. We are excited about this focus in view of the
large growth potential here."

Langford announced that Novell would next month ship in Singapore
IntranetWare, a new product integrating Internet and intranet
technologies, including a Web server and a browser.

-0-
(19960926)
===============================================================

Joe .... (TALK IS CHEAP!!!!)
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