From CNET: This is old news, sorry
"Panel: Networks getting
crowded
By Alex Lash
Staff Writer, CNET NEWS.COM
March 13, 1998, 11:35 a.m. PT
LOS ANGELES--The invasion of "silicon
cockroaches" is threatening to overwhelm our
computer networks, an executive said at a lively
Internet World panel discussion here today.
Panelists Alan Taffel, UUNet's vice president of
marketing and business development;Jeanette
Symons, founder and chief technical officer of
Ascend Communications; and Netcom chairman
David Garrison addressed issues of network
bandwidth and performance in the coming years.
Taffel kicked off the 45-minute discussion with
warnings about the proliferation of computer
chips--"silicon cockroaches"--and their insatiable
demands for network capacity.
"Faxes, cell phones, PCs with modems--they now
drive and eat bandwidth, and they're hungry and
greedy," Taffel said. The explosion of data-based
communications over networks has dramatically sped
up Internet growth, he added.
"Three years ago, we were proud that the Internet
doubled every year," Taffel said. "Now it doubles
every three to six months."
That enormous growth has network service and
equipment providers scrambling to keep up and
reacting to the latest developments in content--video
service, for example--that further increase bandwidth
needs.
"We sit back, shaking in nervousness, waiting to see
what new applications are coming out to break the
network," said Ascend's Symons, with a laugh.
Ascend makes modems and other hardware to
access and build the network infrastructure.
Video was No. 1 on Netcom chairman Garrison's list
of "wild cards" certain to affect future network
performance. "It will have an enormous whipsaw
effect," he said.
That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that video
services--from video phones in the 1960s to
movies-on-demand in the 1980s--have gone bust,
the panel noted. The speakers were equally wary of
the promise of cable modems and the high-bandwidth
services they promise. Unfortunately, there were no
representatives from that industry to defend
themselves. (See related story)
Another trend that is hard to predict but certain to
have an effect is Internet telephone service, which is
beginning to offer low-cost long distance calls with
promises of high quality.
Garrison also noted that the "cockroach" problem
won't go away. Network companies need to keep a
close eye on future chip designs and how such
devices use bandwidth. Another variable is the
tradeoff between transporting and storing data.
Regional providers are mulling over the possibility of
keeping large caches of data on local servers to
minimize long distance network traffic, Garrison said.
"That's a lot like what Yahoo is doing now with its
various regional services," noted panel moderator
Jack Powers, vice president of conferences for
Mecklermedia.
As with most industry discussions these days, the
panelists touched upon government regulation. UU
Net's Taffel noted that IP-network telephone calls
are so cheap in part because there aren't any access
fees, but that could change. (At a recent high-tech
investment gathering in San Francisco, however,
President Clinton pledged to support legislation that
would ban Internet taxation for six years.)
Sending sound and video over the Internet is more
likely to catch on in places where traditional access to
those services is hard to find or expensive, said
Ascend's Symons.
Because of the dizzying array of service
possibilities--local or national ISPs offering phone
services, video, or Internet guides in various
combinations--Garrison scoffed at the idea of a
shakeout in the ISP market.
"That's hogwash," he said. "In a few years, there will
be twice the number there is today, but they'll
become more specialized" according to vertical
interest groups, geographical location, or levels of
user expertise.
One future trend the panelists all envisioned was
higher costs to end users as more services are added
to the Internet.
"Eventually, somebody will pay for bandwidth," said
Symons. "Somebody's installing equipment,
somebody's putting in fiber...you'll have to pay
somebody." " |
