Greg- Nice call, BTW, as the Naz recently went below 4000...and near 3500...
Now, you are being stubborn, and looking for more, deeper downside <G> Shame on you!
I think the Naz below 3500 (for any length of time) call is just too severe....Look, it is August..and everyone hates techs...what else is new....we are now into the 5th month of the bear....and 6 is about how long these things should last....it would be unprecedented for the Naz to go down 30-35%, and be there 8-12 months later (or more)...which is what you are predicting...this is worse than 74-75? I don't need to remind you that many (positive) changes have occured since then...not withstanding this thing called the internet...the mother of all upgrades...
3000 and hangin' around...I just don't see it Greg....my scenario: Choppy (3600-4000) Naz until early/mid September...and then a yearend move to 4500....barring war, or some catastophe...we will continue to enjoy the economic nirvana of high growth (4-5%), low interest rates, and great tech earnings.....investors will come back in during Presidential election rally...because Fed is done this year...
The Naz, being down so long, so low....is having the exact effect of consumer spending that the Fed wanted...each report just confirms the obvious: the economy is slowing (but not for tech earnings)...as a result, money WILL find its way back to the hyper-growers...
We'll see..thanks for your thoughts... |
