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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who started this subject	4/14/2004 2:13:00 PM
From: Rollcast...	of 793928

Orbat is reporting that Sadr has offered to disarm... LOL AFP reports Al-Sadr has offered to disarm his militia and turn it into a political/social movement. He has offered to stand trial, but only when Iraq has a legitimate and democratic government in Iraq. We find his sudden conversion to peaceful action and democracy touching, and suspect the US intent, openly avowed, to capture or kill him had some slight effect. Because he is a rash young man who nonetheless understands he cannot fight the Americans, in our opinion the failure of the grand ayatollahs to back him was probably the main cause for his change of heart. His political acumen is about the same level as his military sense: just about zero. Why did he assume the grand ayatollahs would back him when (1) he has been rudely pulling their beards after the fall of Baghdad, and (2) Shia leaders see their best chance of taking over Iraq lies in getting the Americans out ASAP. The clerics, at least, understand that the best way of sending the Americans home is to play along with American rules for the time being. orbat.com If he has offered this it is only a stalling tactic... Could be positive (sign of desperation). Problem being the brass will probably accept and stand down to be PC before the prof's "varying degrees" of terrorrists are cleared out. The big winner from this whole situation (besides Kerry) is Sistani. The only options are 1)Sadr is gone with his help or 2)Sadr is gone without his help. In either case his hand is strengthened. Hearing more troops are coming may cause him to make a play against Sadr sooner. Of course, this all assumes Sistani is rational and sane (large assumption with this crowd).

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