noparking - join the paranoia club, indexit, LG, myself.
Diverging readings is a sign of possible "market management".
For about a week, market selling or buying, the futures are traded at a premium above fair value: you would pay a premium if, for example, you where shorting the cash market and hedging with futures (buying futures).
This week, I observed on many occasions through the day, that the market was up on a down TRIN (lower TRIN is more trades at bid = selling).
On issue that is kept in my throath is that magnificent writing of the MSFT press release coming at a surprise looong time after usual. Not exactly a surprise as this could explain the sudden peak in both spoo and naz futures which occured at noon sharp yesterday. Somebody knew, enough to pay a high price for 250 NQU and 1000 to 1500 spoo contracts. Next time I will stay out of the market until I have a good explanation.
So, big boyz arranging a stealth rally, rephrase some bearish earnings and start distributing soon, when J6P (and other fund managers) will have rushed in by fear of missing the rally.
We are not far away from heavy resistances (inventory supply levels).
"Exhuberance" could take the COMPX 2800ish, why not? That is exhuberance.
But I doubt it. Looking at the YTD chart for the naz
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[d20010101,20010801][pc200!c450!i][vc60]
highest volume of trades occured 2060-2200ish, then 1940-2060ish, then 2200-2300ish
IMHO, pricing above 2314 double top would be very hard.
Line of lower highs is 2140ish for tomorrow.
That line is the upper line of a falling wedge which started May 01. Possible measure of that wedge is 2350ish, close enough to the double top.
Funny, fib numbers again: retracements of the Jan-Apr through are:
2314 - 2184 - 2054
2184ish is, for tomorrow and Friday, the S/R line from April many people call the neckline of the H&S.
2258ish is also intersting: Jan Fed announcement open.
These last days are too perfect, projections are too obvious to discard the idea that this market is pulled by the nose.
I smell a huge setup, prices pushed towards simplistic TA levels at which the big boyz expect most traders to buy.
But, I already said it, I am paranoid. |
