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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject7/15/2001 4:41:29 PM
From: tensforme   of 6873
 
BRCM: Another bloated pig

Broadcom may not be the best short candidate but at least from a valuation standpoint it's outta whack. I made a ton of money on this stock in '99 when it went public and got out at $220-$250 when Mr.Nicholas began appearing on every magazine cover west of the Mississippi.

But that was in the bubble days and this is now. Here are the indisputable facts concerning this over-hyped pig.

$11.94 Mkt cap on an estimated $205 million in revs this quarter or let's say $850 million 12 mos out.

That means a very lofty P/S of 14.05 based on a rosy scenario.

During the Internet mania when no one was paying any attention to valuation this P/S of 14:1 was probably a bargain. But not anymore.

Consider also: Estimated earnings for BRCM's current quarter: -.16 after losing over a buck-sixty last quarter;
Actual dollars lost were $439,580,000. Whooooooeee!

The prognosis for patient isn't getting any better. We could forgive all if revs were rising but they aren't.
They're dropping like a rock.
Estimated sales for June qtr are $202m - $211m. (company's estimates)

How will Broadcom ever return to profitability with expenses of $747 million a quarter?? (Oh, I forgot, Mr.Nicholas has to be paid, not to mention ongoing expenses associated with all those R&D companies they gobbled up last year).

Short interest 5.39% (I expect to see this rise).
Insiders were selling around $35.
And who are BRCM's top customers? 3Com and Nortel !
How do the technicals look for entry?

Charlie R.
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