Yes, this stock keeps on bouncing at 40. But, then again, for a long time this year, it looked like 70 was support. We bounced at that level several times over several months. On the other hand, 40 has to be (a lot) closer to the bottom than 70!
Anyone who is sure they know the "true" value of AMAT is overconfident. Fact.
Looking at the 37 major and minor variables that influence the stock price, I calculate that AMAT has a TrueValue of precisely 68.34 (plus or minus 37.98).
It looks like that one-month decline in bookings was just NoiseInTheSignal. If bookings are going to level off, and stay at approximately today's levels, for the next couple of years, then AMAT in the 40s is a good buy.
I think we'll get a rally that will fail, once the election uncertainty is resolved. And we'll get a bigger rally, that won't fail, when the Fed goes to a neutral bias (in the next few months). I don't really see the Fed lowering interest rates next year, they'll most likely do nothing at all. But the change in bias should be enough to put a floor under the Nasdaq.
I'm seriously thinking of setting a limit buy order for AMAT (the stock, not the LEAPs), at 40, for about 20% of my portfolio. I think I'll sell into the end-of-year rally (other stocks, not AMAT, I currently have no position in any semi-equip) and then see how things look. I still don't think there is any hurry to buy, this stock isn't taking off anytime soon. But 40 is looking like a floor. |
