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Biotech / Medical : NORTH AMERICAN VACCINE (NVX)
NVX 1.510-3.8%Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: Don W Stone who wrote ()2/10/1997 11:56:00 AM
From: andy harrison   of 21
 
Don:
The thrust of the Individual Investor article about NVX was
that they would be under financial duress in 1997. A fair reading
of the facts using their information would be as follows:
Expenditure:
$36 million per rate per year($9 million/quarter) plus $5 Million
interest payment for Convertable Bonds Outstanding - $5 million.

TOTAL EXPENDITURES -1997 $41 million

TOTAL REVENUES:
(All of this is information that is public knowledge).

Abbott Labs who is NVX's marketing partner owes a balance of $29
million to NVX upon FDA approval of DTaP. The article says
that NVX will receive approval no later than 4th. quarter of 1997.
(I feel that it will be sooner).

NVX has a deal with Rhone Polence(Sp?) for NVX's next generation
Menigitis B vaccine for which NVX is receiving yearly milestone
payments of $10 million per year.

The article says that revenues were $3.7 million.

That totals up to $42.7 million which means that NVX has a potential
positive cash flow of $1.7 million. With approximately $80 million
in the bank (some of it earning interest) and upfront payments and
royalties from Chiron Behring for sales in Germany and Austria; NVX
should become solidly in the black on a cash flow basis for 1997.
1998 the company should be selling product in several countries including
the Good ole" US of A. I think that the article should have come
to the conclusion that the shorts are in a tougher predicament than
the longs.

Regards,

Andy
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