The answer is yes, and yes. I've sent in comments on the BBTK thread several times. I've been involved with hybrid fiber coax (HFC) deployment for for many years. I'm also very familiar with FTTC / SDV technology. However, I don't think any one company yet has the ideal full service network technology that is ready for prime time mass deployment today.
A few years ago I was very bullish about the pace of broadband access network buildouts, weather it was FTTC/SDV or HFC. After working in the midst of this stuff I found out that implementing it for real is a million times harder than it looks on viewgraphs. My personal opinion is that copper pairs will be in service much longer than companies that sell FTTC or HFC equipment would ever like to hear about - at least 30 or 40 more years in many places. Suddenly, ADSL/xDSL doesn't look so bad to all the telcos with the cable industry trying to get into internet access via cable modems pretty quick! DSL is the only quick alternative and its got some advantages over cable modems - if the copper pair loop distance isn't too far (uhh, that's a big if). I would bet on DSL before FTTC companies see lots of black ink. Now thats just my personal observation of whats going on in the business based on the trade press and the general opionions of people I know.
What product really attracts my attention as a sleeping giant in the global telecom business - right now? Simple, compact devices that digitally multiplex a whole bunch of plain old telephone circuits over one or two copper pair. Companies like Pairgain, Raychem and Westech are selling these by hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, especially in the emerging market countries. I just saw a killer product (in service in lots of countries) that derives 150 telephone lines from two copper pairs, line powered from the central office! (Note- this is a really, really big plus) Its weatherproof and works in the jungle or the tundra. Cost is around $250 per line! This is a fraction of anything else, and beats wireless solutions if you add in all of the costs. 90+ percent of the people in the world don't have a phone , and these simple, powerful, and real cheap digital subscriber line technologies over copper wire are probably one of the best ways to get them hooked into the rest of the world. OK, so this technology is not a headline breaker because it only supports telephone services and regular data modems. On the other hand its reliable, a lot better than nothing, equal or better than what I get by with today, and will be a lot easier to deploy than any other fiber or wireline technology in most parts of the world for many years to come. (end of thesis)
Sorry, but you asked a open question and you got a open answer. Ray J.
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