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Strategies & Market Trends : SELL??? Contrarian indicators in the market
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To: White Shoes who wrote (3)12/3/1996 11:51:00 PM
From: Pete Young   of 19
 
You talk about a global demand crisis, I would interpret that as a deflationary depression. Isn't this the same situation we found ourselves in '29? Seems like lots of the same trends...massive concentrations of wealth in fewer and fewer hands, a deregulatory government environment (all nations it seems are racing each other to offer business the lowest taxes and wage rates), coupled with a market in financial wealth that seems out of step with reality. (see "The Bear Market in Fear" Atlantic Monthly, summer '95 I think)

Interest rates do seem to be trending down here in the US, but...if foreigners stop buying T-Bills because of a perception that the dollar could fall against their currency (very possible), I think we would see a sharp rise in interest rates domestically. I believe the Fed monitors the amount of T-Bills held by foreign banks. Probably on one of their pages. Watch the yen...if the dollar trends below 100 yen, not good.

As to when possible corrections could take place...how 'bout tommorow in the AM? Did you see how fast the Dow went down in the last hour of trading? Note that interest rates declined at the same time...that's not typically what happens to stocks when interest rates decline.
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