Chipotle expected to post big Q2 earnings as it remains competitive on value
Brooke DiPalma
Senior Reporter
Tue, Jul 23, 2024, 12:55 PM PDT
Chipotle ( CMG) is expected to maintain its industry-leading position, amid a difficult restaurant landscape with consumers tightening their wallets.
The California-based burrito chain is set to report earnings Wednesday after market close. Wall Street expects another robust quarter, with $2.94 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.32, up 25% year over year.
Foot traffic is expected to be 6.3% higher, but the average check size is only expected to grow 2.63%.
Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman expects sales growth this quarter to be the "highest of the year."
"Though traffic and same-store sales should remain strong in the second half of the year, supported by a strong innovation and marketing pipeline, while throughput remains one of the most meaningful multi-year traffic drivers," she wrote in a note to clients.
UBS analyst Dennis Geiger called the company "one of the best positioned concepts to sustain sales momentum in a tough macro given customer brand affinity and a solid value for the money proposition."
But choosier customers and value meals from fast food players like McDonald's ( MCD) could pose a threat, wrote Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan in a client note.
"On the other hand, we'd rather err on the side of caution and view quick-service restaurant's aggressiveness as a near-term (even if on the margin) headwind at Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack," he wrote in a note to clients.
Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo, who has an Outperform rating and price target of $80 on the stock, wrote that there are more levers the fast-casual restaurant could pull to keep the flame burning long-term.
They include adding late-night or breakfast hours, revamping its loyalty program, and leaning into its Gen Z fans, as the demographic increasingly becomes household decision-makers.
This quarter, some on Wall Street had their eyes on portion sizes at Chipotle, like Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem, who tracked the portion size at eight Chipotle locations in New York City and ordered the same burrito bowl 75 times.
Others think the company will ride out the wave, without a hiccup.
"I don't think consumers are really going to stop going to Chipotle because they feel like their bowls are a little smaller," BTIG's Peter Saleh told Yahoo Finance over the phone. He said customers will likely ask for more if they want it.
"This is going to be short lived, this issue or this social media, kind-of, pushback," Saleh added.
In Q2, the company conducted its first 50-for-1 stock split. Shares have since fallen nearly 18% in the last month to nearly $53.
Here's what Wall Street expects from Chipotle in Q2 2024, based on Bloomberg consensus data, compared to Q2 2023:
- Revenue: $2.94 billion compared to $2.5 billion
- Adjusted earnings per share: $0.32 compared to $0.25 ($12.32 before stock split)
- Same-store sales growth: 9.23% compared to 7.4%
As of Q1, the company expects sales growth of mid- to high-single digits for the full year, which was up from the previous guidance of mid-single-digit growth.
Wall Street expects the company to end Q2 with a total of 3,540 locations. In Q1, Chipotle opened 47 new restaurants, with 43 locations featuring its drive-through Chipotlane. This year, it expects to open 285 to 315 new locations, with more than 80% of them having the drive-through concept. Long term, it plans to operate 7,000 restaurants in North America.
Following Q1, CEO Brian Niccol told investors the results provide "confidence that we can achieve our long-term target of more than doubling our business in North America and expanding internationally."
Link: finance.yahoo.com |
