Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (3991)	11/15/2001 9:35:57 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 36161

[" The stock action since September tells me the bear market is over"] George C; ...respectfully; I couldn't disagree more. The "stock action" has been 110% - ARTIFICIAL - since September 11th. The market was not allowed to trade freely & obviously so. What you will see is this: All the prop job - money plugged the dike and the institutions go the nod to jump on for the "free money" ride and they pushed the market up here triggering all the technical indicators and hopefully drawing Mr. & Mrs. Main Street back in.... then - all the prop job money will sell into their re-entry. ...that may be the quick 50% retrace - or, the Institutions which showed there true Patriotism the 1st day of trading post Sept 11th (shorting & dumping after prompting the individual investor to stand firm)...the Institutions will turn & dump here... they've got Greenpimp right where they want him ! Wall Street us using Greenspan like a cheap whore. The cry & yell the sky is falling and he stops the free-fall and jams the market; they pile on - getting the free ride; then when the public buys into "everything being fine" - they sell right into it again. They know Greenpimp will plug the bottom again... they can't lose.... the ESF isn't even being sly - it's like "Student Body Left" and everyone is in on the play - except the little guy.... Look at the insider trading fiasco with the 30 year bond of late ?!?!? - insider info made $10's of Millions for some Institutional Players. Imho; the Bear is far, far from over. We are literally printing Dollars like Job #1 is to rid the world of "Green Ink" ~ Germany is rolling over & the rest of Europe is soon to follow. Nothing in the core US Industrial Manufacturing Industry has turned positive - nothing. Earnings are terrible.... "where's the Beef" ? Nothing other than a tremendous infusion of money supply is rising ? The main reason the Bear is still intact is the absolute "when, not if" scenario that the US Dollar must be "walked down" by the US... they were starting to do this prior to the Sept 11th tragedy... and once global markets & events stabilize; they will once again place the Dollar on the descent path.... they have to; the recovery of US Corporate Earnings require it, the US Industrial Manufacturing Sector requires it and what will be a continuing negative surprise in the "real" unemployment numbers - will also require it. The same negatives remain: 1. Market valuation multiples - the last thing this market is - is priced for a recession, or present global events. The S&P today is still at a PE multiple nearly DOUBLE of the last recession of 1990 - ie: IT'S THE VALUATIONS - STUPID - never in market history; has an acknowledged speculative bubble bottomed at these valuation multiple levels... never. 2. The US Consumer was the only thing driving the end of this Bull Run and he's tapped out; has a negative savings rate - has just refinanced his mortgage to the maximum LTV atop the tail end of a Real Estate bubble and still has a negative savings rate and way, way too much debt - and is now getting laid off & cutback in 10,000 man waves - with more surely to come; if US Corporate Earnings don't turn around... and there is presently NOTHING indicating that they are anytime soon. ...I'd ignore the recent US Auto Sales stats... "0%" financing is not a "good thing" by the way.... there is a huge glut of lease vehicle returns in which the Big 3 are losing their ass to the tune of $6-10,000 a copy on... and this glut of 2-3 year old vehicles flooding the market is their next big problem to face in addition to the Japanese & Europeans eating their lunch because of King Dollar. 3. We stil have a credit crisis in the US - both corporate & personal... lots of deliquencies & defaults still pouring down the pipeline. 4. The continued Risk of Terrorist events. ... this is a "Discount" that should be applied to the markets imho; as it is an unpredictable "Rogue Wave" event that can crash Global Markets on an intitial news headline alone....we can not/should not use traditional market multiples in "this" environment imho... we should use a "discount" - and there is NONE priced into this market - none at all... not with S&P PE's still double of the last recessionary environment. All in all George; I think the US Market has become so manipulated, so supported, so intervened upon and such an "inside Wall Street Game" - that we have no idea as to where a "free market" would price stocks here today... none at all. There has never been a more dangerous time to be invested in US Equities imho. There has never been a more dangerous time to be long US Dollars. And there has rarely been such a paltry return in US Bonds. ... so what does that leave us with ? - what has market history taught us will allways be the "currency of last resort" - THE ultimate safe haven ? ...and yes; it is a 4-letter word. G-O-L-D ~ ...average into & load thy boat on NEM all the way down - as low as they want to take it. It is becoming THE 400 lbs Gorilla of the Gold Industry with this move on Normandy & Franco Nevada... massive production, nearly $1 Billion in Cash and highly levered to the POG and now "THE" Stand Alone Large Cap - obvious high liquidity Institutional vehicle for investing in Gold - period.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next