RE: "have you ever heard what brinker would do with his utek position.....he sounds like he will go to cash but i think the argument that utek has been in an industry that has had its own bear mkt is a strong one......"
A caller asked Bob if the photolithography stock that he mentioned on the NBR was still a buy under $20. It's my guess that he was talking about UTEK. Bob stated that yes, he considers it a buy.
Bob also stated that, during the 1973-1974 bear market, 100% of the industry groups went down. He feels the same will occur again in a major bear market. So, if he thinks a major bear is approaching, he will sell all stocks, including technology.
I agree with you about the mini-bear-market that the semi industry has experienced, and I can't help but think that further downside risk is less than for the overall market. My current thinking is to hold onto tech stocks during a bear market call, unless they rally more than about 15% from here. If they do rally 15% before the bear call, I'll probably sell tech stocks too.
Let me wander on a bit. I am not giving up on this bull yet. I think we are continuing to see the same significant sector rotation that has bee going on for the last five years. Tech stocks and small caps are the current out-of-favor groups. It is my opinion that this significant sector rotation is one of the things that has prolonged the current bull market.
Having said that, I am developing a detailed plan of action, should the bear market call happen. I have a list of stocks and funds that I will sell, a list that I will continue to hold, and a list that will depend on their price action at the time of the bear call. I'm re-evaluating the lists on a weekly basis.
I develop detailed written plans (as in above example) to remove the emotional side from my investing. Over 30 years of investing, I find that I must put things in writing, or I will fall in with the panic-stricken crowd.
Forgive my rambling,
I2 |
