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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: STU who wrote (4006)6/25/1997 10:33:00 PM
From: WBendus   of 42804
 
<<At 60X EPS of $.90 for 1997 would equal $54/share. Extend the
growth against 1998 earnings of $1.45 and you figure the math.>>

STU, I don't know where you came up with those numbers, but the
mean estimates at for $0.87 in '97 and $1.32 in '98. The most recent
estimates for '97 are for $0.86 and $0.85, and for '98 $1.27 and
$1.20. Longer term estimates have actually be revised downward over
the past couple of months. I suspect that we will see the $0.87 this
year, but $1.32 currently appears to be inflated by the high estimate
of $1.49, which is a full $0.22 higher than the next closest estimate.

Here is the breakdown.

Current price $29.25

1997 PE 1998 PE Growth PEG
1 0.85 34.4 1.20 24.4 41.2% .835
2 0.86 34.0 1.27 23.0 47.7% .713
3 0.90 32.8 1.49 19.6 65.5% .501
-------------------------------------------------
Avg 0.87 33.6 1.32 22.2 51.7% .650
Med 0.86 1.27

I suspect that as we make numbers, we will approace a PEG = .85
against 1997 earnings. Currently that would indicate a price of
around $38.25 on MRVC share by January '98, and I would expect to see
strong support at around $26 based on a PEG = 1 on the industry growth
rate of 30%, pending nothing blows up in our face.

Wayde.
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