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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor
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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (4019)9/11/2001 8:55:29 PM
From: uu  Read Replies (1) of 4710
 
You are correct that today's tragic events are the reasons for my bearishness (and believe me at this time I am even more bearish than you are).

However my bearishness is for a different reason than yours. I do not believe we will be in a long bear market for the excesses of later half of 90's, but rather because of the tremendous collaps of consumer confidence that will not be easily recoverable. There may have been too much excesses built during the last few years, but I believed the consumer confidence would have eventually and quickly offset all such exccesses.

Today's tragic event however will have a profound negative impact on consumer confidence at a global level. Even if those who caused this tragic event are found and punished (preferably without going through the non-sense legal process as we did with Oklahoma city bombing and instead act quickly and severely), there has been a dent in people's confidence. And I dont care what anyone says that how strong we are, etc. etc. etc. Fear was felt today by everyone (not only in the US but globally for which US was viewed as the last place on earth for such terrorist attacks).

When the sense of security and confidence collapses, consumers tend to become very conservative in their spendings. With the already weakended economy, all the lay-offs, today's tragic events broke that last sense of level of confidence. And that my firend is scary.

But as an optimist I believe in the American spirit, and hopefully the confidence will be back not too long from now.
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