105,000 (the number announced by DISH) is still a strong number, and more like what was expected. As noted, the promotion of $100 discount on installation or free self-install kit helped drive those numbers, but I think that the company's focus on co-op advertising instead of national print ads was the biggest factor. It helped drive grass-roots demand for the product.
To clarify my point from an earlier posting, the DBS digest numbers are all guesses. If you compare DISH's ending numbers for August with those on the DBS Digest's web site, you'll see that their numbers were too low for August. To end up with the "correct" ending numbers for September, they added tens of thousands to their acquisition total.
Actually, I still think the DBS Digest ending numbers are still off, but they are better than before. Anyway, that's what I think happened. I don't think that they have an inside source at DISH or that DISH is hoarding subs or anything like that - they just guess based on things they may hear, like how many dishes KTI or Winegard is shipping. In the old days, with C band, the indicator used to be shipments from Chapparal (who made the ubiquitous c band feedhorn), and later numbers from GI on videocipher activations.
Now that the sub numbers are out, I would look for DISH stock to hit 28 or so immediately following a successful launch, slip back about 2 points, and edge back to 28-30 by months end.
Of course, now that their promo is over, and without anything yet announced to take its place, they probably won't have another 105k sub month. Knowledgable investors may put some downward pressure on DISH in the last few sessions before the October sub numbers are announced...
Here's to a successful launch of ECHOSTAR III!
Regards,
NOEL |
