Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (40453)	10/30/2003 1:47:52 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	of 74559

Oil companies always want to know the future price of oil so they can hedge correctly. Banks always want to know the future price of money so that they can adjust their lending terms right now to be ahead of the trend. Despite all their expertise they do about average and if you invest in a well run oil company or bank you can still expect that,e.g. a 20% decrease in profits as well as stock value can arise normally and be in time erased normally. Oil and money are not startlingly new products the profits from which formerly expanded in a straight line for many years like Polaroid film, xerography, or main frames. I think the problem is not to be able to predict the normal ups and downs in advance but to resign oneself to their occurrence and simply make as sure as one can that the bumpy road with them will over time be a quite profitable one. The great companies show it with their various numbers.

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