Vitesse Semiconductor Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor

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To: uu who wrote (4050)	9/21/2001 11:41:09 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	of 4710

Hi A, The ins. companies may be liquidating substantial portions of their own portfolios as you suggest. Good point; I'd not thought about that. I would guess there's probably some net selling by foreign holders of US stocks as well. This may have been a portion of the week's negative volume. I'd guess that if there was margin still in use (haven't looked at statistics in a while) there certainly have to have been some margin calls taking place this week. I've heard rumor of some big calls, but haven't yet seen any articles on the subject. All in all it has to be some rather serious selling pressure on the whole of the market. Today's also Triple Witch day so we'll have the added volume and peculiarities that come with such days. I've been making some purchases in several of my stocks. It will be good to see some statistical confirmation on the market bottoming. My indicators are still split between Neutral and Bullish. When all go bullish I'll be very content. It might take a couple of weeks for this week's data to filter through to my own indicators and when it does I foresee the beginning of a true low risk signal. Since keeping this data starting in 1982 it's only given a unanimous bullish signal a few times: 8/20/1982, 12/4/1987, 09/21/1990 and 10/23/1998. It's actually been a surprise that we've come 18 months along in essentially a bear market without this indicator giving a bullish signal overall. However, it's also been a time when money has been reshuffled and not just left the marketplace. Now, after several months of net redemptions in the mutual fund industry my guess is the instantaneous rate of redemption is very high. A good friend of mine who is normally quite rational sold all his mutual funds in his IRA in 1990 when the Gulf War started looming on the horizon. He then stayed out of the market until the price of his fund had actually come back and exceeded his selling price. Well, maybe he saved a sleepless night or two but he also missed an opportunity to buy (or buy more) at a significant discount. Fear although a thing without substance is still a powerful force. It's nearly impossible to not have it wash over us, but then it's gone and hasn't changed a thing. The grandstanding done by this megalomaniacal sociopath poster boy for anti-nepotism will be recorded in the history books for the terrible things he did, right along with Jeff Dahmer and all the other assholes. Best regards, Tom PS: more on my market risk indicator aim-users.com

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