While I think the growth rate will be much improved, and that the Bush administration will get enough of their tax proposal to "shock and awe" the declining left wing media, the generally-accepted concept that a bad economy will hurt Bush in 2004 is based mostly on lazy historical perspective:
1) Nixon had a terrible economy in 1972, and was notorious for neither knowing nor caring about economics (price and wage controls were an unmitigated disaster). Yet he won 58% of the vote, because the Dems put up a candidate VERY SIMILAR to the field they have today.
2) Reagan had a mediocre economy in 1984, with unemployment pushing double digits. Yet he won 58% of the vote, because the Dems put up a candidate VERY SIMILAR to the field they have today.
3) Ford lost by a hair to Carter in another bad economy year, 1976 (with a high likelihood that the margin of victory was fabricated by crooked Dems), because conservative Republicans didn't trust Ford, who had a generally ignorant 'Voinivich' attitude toward taxes.
4) Bush 41 got 10% less of the popular vote than he could have won in 1992, because he literally stabbed the conservatives in the back on taxes, and thus they didn't support him to any greater extent than wanting to cast a negative vote against the Dem, who was VERY SIMILAR to the Dem field they have today.
5) Dole lost in 1996, after the Republicans had dedicated themselves to denying him the nomination for over 20 years. Dole was notoroiusly unprincipled, and understood NOTHING about taxes and economic growth.
6) Bush will not stand for election in 2004 with anything but a pristine record of fighting HARD for the necessary tax cuts to cure us of the Clinton/Rubin deflation. IF that Clinton disaster persists into 2004, it simply strengthens him, because everyone in Congress who fights him on taxes-from Snowe and Voinivich to Daschle and Jeffords-OWNS a BAD economy in 2004, while Bush OWNS a GOOD economy in 2004. In other words, it isn't Bush 41 all over again, so much as REAGAN-1984 all over again.
That, and the Dems usual dismal record of overt TREASON in a time of national crises, makes the 2004 presidential race ALREADY over and done with. Ask ANY Democrat official, when they are sure no one is around to listen in... |
