Joe,
I was using several indicators combined, even though sometimes they conflict each other, in those cases they may not be accurate, but this time, DMI was not showing sign of it's done with the downturn yet; and %K/%D, even though the %K was at the bottom now (meaning short term it has dropped quite a lot), but it's %D which matters more, and it's still high. Plus with today's volume at 2.6 Mil, it's really hard for it to rebound strongly in short term. and when it bounces, usually it's another good entry point for shorting it, because it's easy to shake the confidence of holders at those point, especially when it loses $5+ per share, their money are not there for losing. As I said before, AOL needs a lot good news, PLUS solid signs to show it can turn around to make profit soon.
Off the topic, nowadays the market is definitely driven by a huge strong emotion from many investors, or mm who may not have any experiences of real bear market, there is no fear of market being high, mostly because whenever you enter, you make money the next day, less people pay attention to their value, to their approprieate price, you can see a lot of such cases, where TA was blunted or people are not knowing TA, and those who don't know TA may still have a lot of money which for sure can drive the market crazy, here are some examples, DELL, KEA, CHRZ, SRA, AOL was also one of them, but the other point you got to know is when those people are crazy, they are crazy selling as well, so AOL may not even stop the downhill as we expected, which I don't care.
Enjoy the ride, up and down,
Tom |
