Claude; Just remember 2 or 3 weeks ago, AOL dip to around 53 and then
bounced back fast and hard, johny come late shorters rushed her late
and were behind the curve and got toasted. I was telling people
not to jump in on AOL if you think she is midstream..you catch her
close to the top, or close to the bottom..if she takes out the
support now at 60 then she could go on down, what is left to her
down side now is not worth the risk unless she confirms she is
going to free fall..and I don't see that at this time.
She has already lost 10 points, If you missed it you missed it,
going after more down side now is like falling in the same trap
she set 3 weeks ago, looking for her bottom now around 60.
Thats another 4 points but you don't make much off a 4 point drop
time you buy in, and pay the spread both ways..if your not fast
and lucky she will sting you. If I already had puts I'd hold them
a bit longer but I'd be glued into real time quotes. I had to go
out of town so I didn't play her..at this point I'm looking for the
point to buy calls AUG calls. I realize sooner or later the last
set of calls are lost, but that's the reason for the long term puts.
BTW It's still cheaper to short her via calls, then short sell.
Any way 3 days does not set a trend, she could bounce at any time
but I'v got a target of 60 for to buy calls, if I was short I'd
hold for a bit, but I would not try to jump on her just because
she is south bound as she left the station up in the 70ts, and
most of the people who rush her late get run over. If she breaks
below 60 and sets in a down trend that's a horse of another color
but this dip can't be called a down trend. Her 50 day MA is still
up, she has to break below that for a day or two for me to belive
a down trend has set in.
Jim |
