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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob
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To: Drbob512 who started this subject7/19/2001 9:03:10 AM
From: longdong_63   of 100058
 
9:02 AM
ECONOMY TALK: The jobless claims data appear to be repeating a pattern seen over the past four years wherein the series posts a sharp increase in the beginning of July only to fall sharply in subsequent weeks. The volatility can be attributable to the seasonal retooling at the automobile manufacturers and is therefore a temporary influence on the jobless claims data. If so, then jobless claims might again resume their most recent downward trend that put the series back below 400k four weeks ago. If jobless claims do stabilize at 400k, this would be consistent with flat monthly payroll readings. Flat payrolls, however, would not prevent the jobless rate from rising; monthly job growth must equal monthly labor force growth (about 150k per month) to prevent a rise in the jobless rate.
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