Richard --
The March 26-April 1, l999, issue of the Rocky Mountain Oil Journal reported the following: During November of l998, 75 Jonah wells produced 4.544 Bcfg. That works out to about 2,019,000 cubic feet/day per well. Is that fairly consistent with what other off-Jonah wells are producing for UP? ( Frankly, I had thought actual gas production flows were MUCH higher than that.)
If the first year decline is 66%,
another 50% decline by the end of Year 3,
and about 6% decline each additional year for a total of 20 years,
WHAT is the total gas production for that well over 20 years?
(The decline rates are from Ultra's June, l998, Brochure.)
On the revenue side:
If the price per 1000 cubic feet of gas is U.S.$1.60 for Year 1,
and the price increases at 3% a year for 20 years,
WHAT is the total value of the produced gas over 20 years?
Do you or anyone else have the means to answer those questions?
Because that is what the cost of the well is "charged" against. After payoff apparently there are only small individual well expenses.
Richard, your friend's well at $1,500,000 to complete is the figure I've read used for a Schlumberger well using 3 1/2' pipe. A Halliburton well apparently cost about a million more because of larger diameter pipe and different fracing technique and additional time. And all those sky-high Initial Production numbers we've all seen don't seem to matter at all when actual production is about 2MMcfd. (Or do they indicate wells with increased years of productivity because pressure is conserved?)
Anyone who could put out some solid numbers would be appreciated by all!
Gerry Atwater |
