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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp
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To: faris bouhafa who wrote (4083)10/25/1997 4:30:00 PM
From: Laserbones   of 11888
 
Faris: you read into my comment something other than what was intended. My comment was directed at the fact I took a long position based on my take of the info at the time and taxi did not. I was replying directly to a post by taxi.

This is where I have real probelms with the "Go AIPN" crowd. It is an absolute requirement that any investor always balance his/her exuberance for a stock with some skepticism. Arguments that are made on this thread that point out all is not always rosey are met with biased replies. And you are, however, completely inaccurate in your statement:

>>"...the skeptics usually just critique the positive comments without coming up with a single fact related to AIPN/Kazakhstan..."

There have been many excellent issues raised. And a very good one is why is everyone concerned about whether a major is going to save any money striking a deal, now?

There is no good fundamental reason that I have seen on this thread that answers this question. Oh, sure there's been alot of: "they'll save money," or "if they don't sign someone else will," and even "oil cos strike these kind of deals all the time."

But how often do oil cos grab these concessions for pennys versus actually paying what they may "potentially" be worth? This is a fundamental flaw in the reasoning here. Yes, there are times when a proven reserve yields even more recoverable. But statistically I wouldn't put much wait on that. From what I've been able to distill from my own research is that far more often the potential-proven-recoverable graph is downward--steeply.

I firmly stand by the opinion that until the seismic data collection/analyis has been completed and those results have been verified by independent tests/observation there will not be any JV with a large oil company. The argument that everyone can be patient except these outside oil cos is easily sliced by Occam's Razor.

Greg

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