Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 294.18

-7.7%

12:03 PM EST

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To: marc henschke who wrote (40934)	12/18/2000 2:41:27 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (3) of 70976

mh, amat does not trade on fundamentals in any reasonable time frame under 1 year. The fundamentals are the best in the tech industry.The fundamentals are the best in the tech industry. I said it twice on purpose. There is no long term doom and gloom, only short term. It trades based on book to bill acceleration and deceleration. I know, you now think I am an idiot, but it would take about 3 years for some of us here to walk you through the 1700 different approaches we have taken in order to refine it down to the above comments. The time to buy seems to be at around the 200 week, and the run back over the 30 week. the time to sell and short is when it collapses thru the 30 w. Based on these rules, we are close to the time that all shorts should be covered and it is time to buy stock and leaps. Now. Confirmation will come when the book to bill bottoms out in the next 6 months. We could go a lot lower in the meanwhile, but probably will surprise everyone by not hitting 30. Your questions are great and I am somewhat embarrassed to answer you based on ta. But the damn thing defies the fundamentals. Based on fa, it is ALWAYS time to buy and hold amat.

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