I thought it strange that Wall street analyst slices PC growth from 10% to 5% while industry watchers think things are getting better going from 1.8% to 3% growth rate.
I sticking to the notion of recovery in PC growth. The absolute total number of mechanical items in PC's like drive motors and fans that are prone to failure are at all time high and at their oldest average age in service.
Just think that if a replacement computer is under $1,000 decision RE busted PC will be to replace not repair PC in 2002 in stark contrast to decisions made in 2000-2001 timeframe.
Signs of chip biz recovery spotted
PC sales set to grow by 3 per cent
By Paul Hales, 13/03/2002 16:24:26 BST
MARKET RESEARCH COMPANY IDC says it expects PC shipments to grow by three per cent in 2002, revising its previous estimate of 1.8 per cent growth upwards.
The company reckons to have spotted some positive trends around the globe including decent sales of notebooks last quarter in Europe. The main hope lies with China, the company suggests, where fourth quarter growth of 7.8 per cent last year is expected to continue.
The China Center of Information Industry Development (CCID), estimates that desktop PC sales in China will reach 17.4 million units, in 2003. This would more than double the 7.28 million 2001 figures. This body expects annual growth rates of 18.8 per cent over the next five years. That would put China above Japan as the world’s second-largest PC market, by 2007.
IDC says the Japanese market will decline by around ten per cent over the coming year.
The company said returning consumer spending in the US will help boost PC sales in the coming months. It reckons this year's three per cent growth to 125.5 million boxes will be followed by a sales increase of 10.9 percent in 2003, when worldwide PC shipments may reach 139.2 million units.
IDC's research is backed by movements in third party manufacturers, particularly in the far east. By the second quarter, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co expects its fabs with be delivering seventy per cent of capacity as demand from its customers rises. That may sound like a waste of a third of its production capacity, but in these troubled times, even running at half capacity is good news, it seems.
Harvey Chang, TSMC's chief financial officer, told a conference in Taipei that business momentum was picking up. "Each month we are seeing more demand," he said.
TSMC's partner in crime, UMC, says it is likely to be operating at 60 per cent capacity through spring and early summer.
Meanwhile, Infineon Technologies has signed a deal with semiconductor manufacturers Winbond Electronics and Mosel Vitelic to increase its DRAM capacity by more than 20,000 wafers per month.
Ulrich Schumacher, president and CEO of Infineon, said: "Infineon considers these cooperations as a major step to prepare for the upcoming market recovery." µ |
