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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends
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From: bob_o10/10/2025 7:48:45 AM
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Lou Weed

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I’ve been fascinated by stock market cycles for a long time. It wasn’t too long ago that I learned about Hurst cycles (546 days, plus harmonic sub-cycles) and started working on a methodology to try to generate projected S&P significant highs and lows. After looking at some existing work online plus my own observations, I tried using several significant lows for starting dates and a few primary cycle frequencies. What I settled on was a start date of 3/23/20 and 3 different primary cycles – 328, 546, and 928 days. I then looked at another 546-day (Hurst) cycle that began on the significant low of 4/7/25. I optimized each of these separately to best align with actual prices using the amplitude of the cycle and sub-cycles as variables, and then optimizing again by a phase shift of the sub-cycles. I then combined each of those results using an optimized weighting of the daily projections of each one to come up with a composite plot.
Time will tell if it’s any good at identifying future significant changes in trend or if I need to do a re-optimization maybe every 6 months or so, or even try to look at other cycles. But if nothing else, it’s been a fun (admittedly nerdy!) exercise that has helped satisfy my fascination with market cycles. So FWIW, here’s the current plot:
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