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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: ShoppinTheNet who wrote (40)	5/4/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	of 3536

SK, The minimum the Euro will need to be successful would be to be accepted as a store of value and to be used in international transactions. This is virtually assured which is why I've said the Euro is a done deal and will succeed. We will not see the Euro disappear and the member states try to revert to national currencies. It is already a success for that reason. As far as what I think it needs to be a success is for it to be a strong currency that will maintain value and not be eroded by debasement. It will also help move Europe to an integrated economy with vibrant growth able to produce jobs for its citizenry. That is a lot to ask of a currency and it will need to be supported by further policy initiatives by the EU. So in a narrow currency definition it is already a success. In the broader sense of success it is still a question of what European politicians do to reform their economies in order to take advantage of their larger uinified economy. That is a question that is far from answered. (If I had to bet I would say that they will appear to succeed for the first five years or so but then the old socialistic tendencies will sap economic strength). Henry

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