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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 322.32-5.6%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (41004)12/20/2000 11:43:35 PM
From: Ian@SI   of 70976
 
Gene,

If you look at MU reporting 2¢ less than the estimates, then going up a little less than a $ in afterhours, one could conclude that a lot of bad news is already factored into the current prices.

... especially if one looks at the sector as still having record billings.

... and still taking orders sufficient to build the backlog by another 12%.

Clearly, if Greenspan creates a global recession, we're going to see the backlog shrink rapidly; and a lot lower prices than today's. Seems to me that the market has already started its move toward expecting that recession. Should the Fed ease, we may see a change in market sentiment shortly thereafter.

Until that happens, you'll probably do well with your current strategy.

IMO.
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