Jacob,
I am not very knowledgeable when it comes to options trading or TA, so no comments from me there...
My only comments refer to your point 4 where you mention CPQ's business model and compare CPQ to DELL.
Firstly, CPQ is not "just a box mover". Management agrees with you re the toaster analogy and has made substantial changes to the model to meet this threat. Vis the merger with Tandem & DEC, (NOT box movers). CPQ's current line up of product includes bread and butter products like toasters, but a significant portion of revenue comes from the higher level, PC Servers and Enterprise Class machines. (According to IDC, more than 50% of PC Servers shipped are CPQ). Also there has been a significant shift towards full service offerings. Have a look at Compaq's website for the "ActiveAnswers" program. There are more examples of this shift in similar value-add initiatives.
Secondly, your comment: "Compaq's efforts to imitate Dell will continue to be hesitant and tardy." CPQ is certainly competing with DELL, but in a specific "toaster" arena. Granted DELL is consolidating and aiming at the PC Server market, but these two companies are now in substantially different leagues, so the comparison doesn't really hold water. (By the way, I agree with you, DELL's model, in their arena, is better than CPQ).
So, in summary, I don't disagree with all your points, I just think you should consider some other significant factors...
Basically, I'm a CPQ bull <g>
H |
