Indexit: <<the most recent decline was the worst and I think it along with other factors indicate we are going down further, when is my fundemental question.>> "When", as usual, is always the fundamental question, it seems. TA seems to be the only way to go on this one. Sorry I can't help any. Your experience with TA is far more advanced than mine. I'm basically just beginning. In the past I've relied mostly on FA and SA. TA was always somewhat foreign to me, something I could not seem to get a comfortable handle on. But since DrBob's class I am getting more comfortable with this tool. But I still have a long way to go - especially since I mainly go for the longer pull, rather than intra-day transactions.
And, yes, I was confusing your bullishness as longer term rather than short. I had sensed it over a period of time, hence the confusion on my part. But still, although I am longer term, reading the posts relating to the real short term does give me a feel of the psychology involved in trading. And I'm really impressed with the attention to detail by members of this board. I tend to be a bit sloppy in my thinking and I'm slowly being forced here to focus my thinking more.
Can't help any yet on chart divergences - have been so busy lately that I have been very selective on what TA I do follow. I am aware of the importance of such underlining index/TA attribute divergences.
I don't post more because this board is very TA oriented and I'm still lacking in this area. Also, I am not posting much now during the trading day because I think a lot of my non-TA postings may, if read, actually interfere with traders. I try to limit my non-TA postings to after-trading hours and to things I think someone might be able to use. I do some practicing of TA, of course. And then there are the posts I make commenting on my take on things that may not or may not be TA-based. I like to stick my neck out once in awhile to see what another's response might be. Could get shot down, but I learn a lot this way.
Getting back to "when" we go down further, I have felt that could occur later rather than sooner - mainly because of govt action in the shorter term and longer-term, my feeling that FA-wise technology and other areas of the market are still over-valued. I am not at all sure we will get a wash-out before the market enters a tradeable rally. This fits in with my feeling that any rally, while potentially strong, would be short term only - before the bear resumes. Just my take on things generally and certainly not a prediction. I'm still following TA as closely as possible.
Ken |
